This Week in Auto Racing August 17 - August 19

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/14/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a light week for racing unless you are trying to make the "Chase for the Nextel Cup." Then it's a huge weekend, one of just four remaining, before we determine who will race for the 2007 championship and who will watch from the sidelines.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

3M Performance 400 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI

Just four races remain until the cutoff for the "Chase for the Nextel Cup." Following an eventful Sunday in upstate New York, the picture is becoming clearer as to who is a contender and who is just a pretender.

One thing is for sure, Kurt Busch is a contender. The No.2 Miller Lite Penske Racing Dodge driver has been on fire since the Pepsi 400 in early July. In his last five starts, Busch has one win (Pocono), three top-10s and finished no lower than 11th.

At the time he began to "heat up" he was 15th in the standings and staring at a second consecutive season without a chance at the title. Then something happened, the team jelled and now they find themselves solidly in the top-12. Busch has a 96-point lead on teammate Ryan Newman and 100 points ahead of stumbling Dale Earnhardt Jr.

In fact, at Pocono they were easily the best car on the track. Busch led 175 of 200 laps en route to a 4.131-second win and one of the most dominant performances of the season.

"It's all about momentum 'the big mo' -- and Busch and our entire Miller Lite Dodge team certainly have it going for us," said crew chief Pat Tryson on the team's website. "If you're fortunate enough to have 'the big mo' on your side, it's best to ride it for all it's worth and that's exactly what we're hoping to do."

The something that "happened" for the No.2 Dodge team was Tryson himself. Tryson took over the reins about two weeks before the sudden upswing in the team's performance. It took a little time to make changes, but now everyone can see the results.

Tryson teamed with Mark Martin at Roush Fenway Racing for the first three years of "The Chase" and they qualified in all three years. Last year he was switched over to Greg Biffle's team, but that didn't quite work out as planned.

"Competing for championships is our goal and Pat's proven that he has the ability to get top level teams and drivers into the Chase," said Tim Cindric, President of Penske Performance.

Newman, Busch's teammate at Penske, has been just outside the "Chase" all season and unfortunately appears on a course to stay there. Just two top-10s in the last five races and a accident that left him 42nd at Indianapolis has left him with only a slim chance at making NASCAR's "playoffs." Mark down Newman as a pretender.

For the millions of Dale Earnhardt Jr. fans this will be hard to read, but "Junior" is a pretender as well. He is 100 points out of the playoffs and has finished 34th or worse in three of the last five events. Not exactly the way to make a move up the charts. At Watkins Glen, Earnhardt Jr. finished 42nd after an engine failure, his team's second in the last three events. And with "Junior" already having one foot out the door, don't expect anything spectacular from this team over the next month.

Greg Biffle is 15th in the standings, but 212 points out of the "Chase." It's a tall order for Biffle to jump over three drivers and that many points. The team has been solid of late, but not extraordinary, which is what will be needed over the next month if the No.16 Roush Fenway Ford team is to make the leap into the "Chase."

The good news for Biffle is that he has had a lot of success at Michigan International Speedway. In nine starts, he has two wins and six top-10s and led 170 laps. His average finish at MIS of 12.778 is better than either Newman, Earnhardt Jr. or Kurt Busch.

For both the contenders and pretenders it's time to put up or shut up.

Busch

Carfax 250 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI

Kevin Harvick is back to his 2006 Busch Series championship form these days, winning the last two Busch events (Montreal, Watkins Glen) and four of his last five starts.

In just 17 starts this year, Harvick has collected a series-high five wins and 15 top-10s. He is third in points despite missing seven races (29% of the season), in itself an amazing statistic.

While Harvick's win in Montreal was a matter of being in the right place at the right time to take advantage of other driver mistakes, at Watkins Glen he was dominant from start to finish leading a total of 49 of 82 laps.

Harvick has always been pretty good when it comes to turning right as well as left. In 14 Nextel Cup and Busch road course starts, he has won twice and earned nine top-10s in 14 races. It would have been 10 of 14 if Juan Pablo Montoya hadn't got into the back of him on Sunday, but that's a whole different can o' worms.

"We have been able to run in the top-10 and top-five at Watkins Glen and Sonoma," said Harvick on his team's website. "I am fine that my name doesn't get brought up when it comes to road-course experts. It kind of gives me a chance to fly under the radar a little."

This week Harvick and 19 other "Buschwhackers" will race in the "Saturday warmup."

Among them is Mark Martin, the all-time Busch Series leader at MIS with two wins, seven top-fives, eight top-10s, 304 laps led and an average finish of 4.2. He is the only driver two sweep a Michigan weekend, accomplishing the feat in August 1993.

Since it has been six paragraphs and there has yet been no reference to points leader Carl Edwards, who leads the series by 766 points, despite finishes of 30th and 32nd in the last two events. It shows just how great a start the No.60 Roush Fenway Racing driver had, posting nine consecutive top-six results, to start the season.

Edwards could take a month's vacation and still return in first place. Of course, a vacation for Edwards would be something like going dirt track racing back home, so he might as well continue to race each week and let as many fans as possible enjoy his "work."

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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The NFL preseason is approaching. Time for players, coaches and teams to turn over a new leaf. General managers have hired some new coaches, while coaches have added some offensive and defensive assistants to try and improve things. Here’s a look at some changes to look for in the preseason.

New York Jets: The Jets were one of the surprise teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs under hard-driving first-year coach Eric Mangini. Mangini rebuilt the offensive line with rookies D'Brickashaw Ferguson (the No. 4 pick in the 2007 Draft) and Ohio State center (the 29th pick in the first round). This season he upgraded the defense with rookie linebacker David Harris (Michigan) while the secondary picked up a much needed top-notch corner in Pitt CB Darrelle Revis (No. 14 overall).

The Jets have added balance to the offense for QB Chad Pennington with RB Thomas Jones, essentially stolen from the Bears. He will upgrade a New York ground game that was 20th in rushing with a weak 3.5 yards per carry. They have their first true feature back since Curtis Martin. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer prefers ball control, like his father Marty. In preseason, behind Pennington you’ll see second-year QB Kellen Clemens and mobile newcomer QB Marques Tuiasosopo.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The heat is on Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville as the Jaguars flopped last season despite a ton of talent. Keep in mind that under Del Rio the Jaguars have been outstanding in preseason with a 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS August mark. online football betting Their defense is loaded, it’s the offense that has been stuck in first gear the last few years.

Enter a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, the former Boise State and Arizona State pass-happy coach. He will try and upgrade a passing game that ranked 24th last season. Del Rio has criticized wide receivers and Matt Jones this summer, both of whom have battled injuries. It will be interesting to watch the “new” Jaguars passing game in preseason.

Arizona Cardinals: Word out of Arizona is that the players like new coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was the Steelers offensive coordinator last year. We think of Arizona as all-passing because their running game has been awful of late because of a poor offensive line. However, keep an eye on the running game in preseason as they’ve made a lot of changes.

The new coach brings in Russ Grimm to coach the offensive line (Grimm did a marvelous job building the Steelers line). They took Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth. Reggie Wells was moved from right tackle to left guard and they want more speed out of the offensive line for pulling and traps, a Pittsburgh staple under Bill Cowher.

Atlanta Falcons: While all the attention has been focused on QB Mike Vick’s off-field problems, new coach Bobby Petrino is revamping the Falcons from an all-running team to a more balanced one. Petrino likes the experience of backup QB Joey Harrington and he has veteran backup Chris Redman, who used to play for Petrino at Louisville and knows his offenses better than anyone. Petrino wants Vick to be more of a pocket passer.

The addition of FB Ovie Mughelli is a sign Petrino wants a power rushing attack behind a physical fullback and newcomer WR Joe Horn should upgrade what was a below average wideout corps. Petrino is changing their old zone-blocking scheme to a more traditional in-line blocking scheme and the offensive line is bigger. Rookie DE Jamaal Anderson was grabbed in the first round and the secondary got younger with former Auburn cornerback David Irons, who the Falcons think was a steal as a sixth-round pick.

Cleveland Browns: The 2007 Browns look like a double-edged sword. There was the excitement of the offseason, trading for RB Jamel Lewis, upgrading the offensive line with Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas (the No. 2 pick in the draft) and free agent LG Eric Steinbach, then trading for Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn when he fell to No. 22. GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel feel they have a talented, balanced offense with these new pieces, plus TE >Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards.

However, were these moves made in desperation? And were they foolish ones? The Browns gave up their 2008 first-round pick for Quinn and we all know QBs take time to develop. And even first-round QBs can be busts (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith). We also don’t know if the offensive line is that much improved (31st in rushing in 2007) and they did nothing to improve a defense that was awful against the run (142 yds pg allowed).

The Browns have a new offensive coordinator in Rob Chudzinski. This is a young offense and Quinn looked tentative, indecisive and inaccurate early in camp. Crennel will play Charlie Frye, Quinn and Derek Anderson in preseason. And there is a mixed bag for rookie QBs receiving significant starts: Tim Couch (14), Kerry Collins (13), Ben Roethlisberger (13), Vince Young (13), Joey Harrington (12), Matt Leinart (11) and Kyle Boller (nine). While all the focus will be on the Browns new-look offense, I’m more concerned with the defense.

Carolina Panthers: Coach Jon Fox loves the ground game, but Carolina has made some interesting changes for 2007. Fox fired offensive coordinator Dan Henning and brings in Jeff Davidson to run the offense. Davidson has brought in zone-blocking schemes to the Panther offense, a dramatic change for a system that's been built around a power-running style.

In zone-blocking, offensive linemen are responsible for blocking any defender who appears in their zone, instead of focusing on one defender. The Broncos and Falcons have had success with the system, which features smaller, more athletic offensive linemen and can create running lanes on the inside and outside. Keep an eye in preseason on how Carolina adjusts as it will take time to learn the system. Fox has been one of the top coaches in preseason, with a 15-5 SU, 12-7-1 ATS August record.

Dallas Cowboys: WR Terrell Owens is still here, but QB Drew Bledsoe and Bill Parcells are gone. New head coach Wade Phillips takes over, replacing Parcells. He ran the Chargers defense last season. Phillips was chosen by teary-eyed owner Jerry Jones partly because he is one of the best 3-4 coaches in football and the Cowboys have loaded up on players for that scheme.

Remember that Phillips was blitz-happy with the Chargers last season and early reports out of the Dallas camp have mentioned how the Cowboys have been blitzing a lot, a departure from Parcells. The theme of the 2007 Dallas defense appears to be one of attack.

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