Cards KO 49ers; Leinart injures shoulder

Football Betting Lines

12/25/2006 - San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Leinart completed 9-of-13 passes for 162 yards and a score before spraining his left shoulder just before halftime, as the Arizona Cardinals went on to top San Francisco, 26-20, and knock the 49ers out of playoff contention.

Leinart got sacked by Roderick Green just under the two-minute mark of the second quarter and went to the locker room with a sprained left shoulder, but Kurt Warner came in to complete 9-of-13 passes for 105 yards in relief.

Edgerrin James rushed for 105 yards on 29 carries for the Cardinals (5-10), who have won three of their last four. Larry Fitzgerald caught four balls for 93 yards and a touchdown, while Anquan Boldin added 64 receiving yards on four catches.

Alex Smith completed 18-of-29 passes for 190 yards and an interception for the 49ers (6-9), who have dropped four of their last five. Frank Gore rushed for 51 yards on 11 attempts. Vernon Davis had four receptions for 91 yards, and Arnaz Battle posted 55 receiving yards on seven catches.

Because of San Francisco's loss, Seattle won the NFC West.

Gore scored on a one-yard run with five minutes left, but the Cardinals never gave the ball back after getting three more first downs.

San Francisco drew first blood on a 49-yard field goal from Joe Nedney with 10:19 remaining to cap a seven-play, 37-yard drive. Neil Rackers responded with a 25-yarder almost three minutes later to tie the score.

Marcel Shipp then ran it in from five yards out to cap an eight-play, 64-yard drive with a tick under a minute left to take a 10-3 Arizona lead into the second quarter.

Leinart got his passing game going and found Fitzgerald for a six-yard touchdown pass to cap a 10-play, 74-yard drive that chewed up over five minutes off the clock. Rackers followed with a 39-yarder about six minutes later, but Nedney converted a 32-yarder with just 22 seconds left for a 20-6 Arizona lead at halftime.

San Francisco punted on its first possession out of the locker room, but Troy Walters fumbled and Maurice Hicks recovered for the 49ers. They capitalized on the turnover when Gore scored from two yards out for a 20-13 deficit with 6:25 remaining in the third.

Rackers got credited with a 37-yard field goal three seconds into the fourth, but the ball actually hooked to the left of the upright, for a 23-13 Cardinals lead.

After Battle fumbled on San Fran's opening play of the drive, Robert Griffith recovered the ball. The Cardinals then needed just three plays to set up Rackers for a 32-yarder with 8:28 left.

The 49ers responded with a seven-play, all-passing drive to set up a one-yard touchdown run by Gore with five minutes left. However, Arizona picked up three first downs en route to running out the clock and the playoff hopes for the 49ers.

Game Notes

San Francisco has a 17-14 lead in its all-time series with the Cardinals, but has dropped four in a row to Arizona...The Cardinals opened University of Phoenix Stadium with a 34-27 win over San Francisco in Week 1, and also swept a pair of games against its NFC West rival last season. The Niners were 17-10 losers when Arizona visited Monster Park in Week 13...Prior to 2005, the 49ers had prevailed in eight of the previous nine head-to-head meetings. The Niners won by identical 31-28 marks, both in overtime, in a 2004 home-and- home...James became Arizona's first 1,000-yard rusher in eight years.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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