Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
12/01/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It was a balanced year on the Canadian Tour with 11 players winning tournaments, and just one player winning twice.
And not only did the tour have a solid season in and of itself, but a couple of its' alums were also making big news as the year wound to a close.
We'll first take a look at two of the alums.
Jim Rutledge, 52, fired a nine-under 62 in the second round at the Champions Tour Q School. He took the lead with that stellar round, but failed to hold that top spot.
Not to worry. He carded four sub-par rounds and shared second place behind Jeff Freeman. Rutledge, a six-time winner on the Canadian Tour, was one of five players to earn full status on the Champions Tour for 2012.
Adam Hadwin was one of the 11 winners on the Canadian Tour this year and he was able to make five starts on the PGA Tour.
The 24-year-old had two top-10 finishes in those five events, including a share of fourth place at the Canadian Open. Thanks in part to that, and his share of seventh at the Frys.Com Open, Hadwin earned over $440,000 on the PGA Tour.
In his 11 Canadian Tour starts, including a victory at the Pacific Colombia Tour Championship, Hadwin earned more than $42,627.
Hadwin, who shared 39th at the U.S. Open, earned enough money in his five PGA Tour starts that he was able to skip the first and second stages of Q School and advance right to the final stage.
Hadwin is one of 20 Canadian Tour players that made it to the final stage of PGA Tour Q School, which gives them at least some status on the Nationwide Tour next year.
While those 20 are battling for a place on the PGA Tour, 16 others are going for their card on the European Tour for 2012. Heading that group is Hugo Leon, who finished second on the 2011 Canadian Tour Order of Merit.
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez was the top player in 2011 on the Canadian Tour. He was the lone player with two titles, and he also had a runner-up finish. Those three high finishes came in a five-event span starting in early May and ending the first Sunday in July.
Rodriguez missed the cut in a pair of PGA Tour starts, but in his one appearance on the Nationwide Tour in 2011, he shared 11th place at the Mexico Open.
Rodriguez's first tour title came in one of the better events of the season, the Mexican PGA Championship.
The Mexican closed with a five-under 67 in the final round to match Roger Sloan at 14-under. They finished one stroke clear of two others, while two more players were two strokes back.
Rodriguez and Sloan headed to a playoff, where Rodriguez birdied the first extra hole to win for the first time on the Canadian Tour.
Among the others that had good years included Benjamin Alvarado, Dustin Risdon and Garrett Sapp. The trio all finished inside the top-10 in the Order of Merit despite not winning this season.
Matt Johnston, Nathan Leonhardt and Robert McRae were among those that had difficult seasons. Johnston had 11 starts, while Leonhardt and McRae both started 10 events. Of the group, Johnston earned the most money collecting just $1,525 with two made cuts.
<< In the FCS Huddle: Bell, Lum, Mitchell get Payton invites
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Each knew he was being considered for the
Walter Payton Award, yet none focused on it.
Instead, quarterbacks Chris Lum of Lehigh and Bo Levi Mitchell of Eastern
Washington and running back Shakir Bell kept
<< Boudreau jumps right back into fray
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Getting fired from your first NHL head
coaching position is normally a difficult experience, but if you thought Bruce
Boudreau was going to wallow in self-pity, think again.
Less than three days after bein
<< Murray, Miller chosen as top rookies for November
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray and
Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller have been selected as the NFL's top
rookies for the month of November.
Murray rushed for 434 yards with one touchdown
<< Grier calls it a career after 14 seasons
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Long-time NHL forward Mike Grier announced his
retirement on Thursday.
Grier posted five goals and 16 points in 73 regular-season games with the
Buffalo Sabres last year -- adding one assist in seven p
Union ratifies new baseball CBA >>
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Major League Baseball Players Association
has approved the new collective bargaining agreement with owners that was
reached last week.
A unanimous vote from the MLBPA's executive board ratified the
Dodgers ink Kennedy >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Dodgers signed veteran
infielder Adam Kennedy to a one-year contract on Thursday.
"Adam gives us infield depth and an experienced left-handed bat," said Dodgers
general manager Ned Co
Bogomolov Jr. can play Davis Cup for Russia >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Bogomolov Jr. has been cleared to
play Davis Cup for Russia, instead of the United States, after the
International Tennis Federation approved the move on Thursday.
The 28-year-old Ru
Yankees' Rivera to have throat surgery >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees star closer Mariano Rivera
will undergo surgery on Friday to remove polyps from his vocal cords.
Baseball's all-time saves leader will be unable to speak for a week following
the procedure
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting