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03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It is the usual suspects that are destined to do the most damage in Las Vegas this week, as the members of the Mountain West Conference descend on the Thomas & Mack Center for the 11th annual conference tournament.
All season long there was a tug-of-war going on between New Mexico and BYU and in the end the Lobos (28-3, 14-2) won out and captured the regular-season title and the top seed in this event, while the Cougars (28-4, 13-3) continued to fight hard and placed second in the standings. Both UNLV and San Diego State had their moments, but the inconsistency from game-to-game meant that investing too much faith in either program would certainly break one's heart. As a result, each team finished at 11-5 in conference, with the tie-breaker going to the host team in this event and the Aztecs being the fourth seed.
Any one of the four aforementioned programs have a strong chance of raising the trophy and earning the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament and by the same token, the other five teams in the MWC are long shots to get beyond the quarterfinal round on Thursday.
Actually, the tourney begins on Wednesday when ninth-seeded Air Force and eighth-seeded Wyoming clash in the desert. The Falcons (9-20, 1-15) started off the season well enough with four wins in five games, but even the academy couldn't convince itself that victories over Western State, Dickinson State, Charleston Southern and NC Central were worthy statements to say that the team had finally arrived. In fact, the Falcons won just five games from then on and just one in conference, against Wyoming at home as it were. Air Force, one of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation with a mere 56.7 ppg, again had a strong defense as it allowed just 63.5 ppg, but there were just too many times when Air Force was overwhelmed and outplayed. Grant Parker finished the season scoring 12.9 ppg, but because he did not participate in 75 percent of the squad's games he failed to earn a spot in the league's top-20 in scoring.
As for the Cowboys (10-20, 3-13), losing Afam Muojeke to injury prevented them from being competitive down the stretch. In fact, the team won just two games after he went down, and one of those was against Air Force last week at home. Wyoming is listed as the fourth-highest scoring team in the league with 71.7 ppg, but that is rather misleading given that the team cranked out a combined 243 points in just two games against Peru State and Adams State. Take away those two romps and the Pokes were less than ordinary, especially with the defense giving up a league-high 75 ppg in 2009-10. With A.J. Davis now out of action, that takes another 10.0 ppg off the books and leaves the Cowboys wondering what happened to their season.
Unfortunately, either Air Force or Wyoming is going to advance on Wednesday night, and when it does it will see nationally-ranked New Mexico waiting in the wings. As hyped as the Lobos are these days the Falcons and Cowboys, two teams that have still not won an MWC Tournament title, have to be somewhat confident seeing as how both programs took UNM to the brink at some point this season before being turned away. Because of some of those isolated struggles, the Lobos are third in the conference in scoring margin at plus-10.1 ppg, trailing both BYU and UNLV. What UNM does have going in its favor is senior leadership in Roman Martinez (14.1 ppg), and surprising input from newcomer Darington Hobson (15.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 143 assists). Because of Martinez and Hobson, the Lobos recently ranked as high as 33rd in the country with more than eight three-pointers per game. Add Dairese Gary (12.4 ppg) and Phillip McDonald (10.9 ppg) to the list of contributors and any one of them have the potential to take over a game and lead the Lobos to the next level.
Assuming New Mexico will make it out of the quarterfinals, waiting for the Lobos will be either fourth-seeded San Diego State or fifth-seeded Colorado State in the semis. The Aztecs (22-8, 11-5) lost both of their meetings against UNM during the regular season, but they too played a close game versus the Lobos later in the campaign and took them to overtime before bowing by a basket. Head coach Steve Fisher and his squad has a lot to prove after the team lost by two points in the title game last season to Utah and it begins by letting the rest of the league know that they will struggle to score points against the top defense in the MWC, with SDSU allowing just 61.8 ppg. Kawhi Leonard was a great addition to the Aztecs lineup this season, averaging 12.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per outing, although his mere 19.7 percent shooting from three-point range took some of the luster off his efforts. Malcolm Thomas (11.1 ppg, 7.9 rpg) was another key ingredient to the squad's success. However, the most frustrating aspect of the Aztecs is that they leave far too many points on the floor with a miserable 60.8 percent shooting at the free- throw line.
The Rams (16-14, 7-9) beat the teams that they should have in the conference, but at the same time had some truly awful efforts against the top-tier schools mixed in as well. CSU lost to the Aztecs by double digits in both regular- season meetings, so that in itself doesn't bode well for this group. Were it not for a 76-67 win over Utah on Saturday, Colorado State would be heading into the postseason with a lengthy losing streak. The offense for the Rams was not one to light up the scoreboard, producing just 66.3 ppg to rank second-to- last in the MWC ahead of only Air Force. Andy Ogide sits atop the scoring list for the team with his 11.9 ppg, having shot 54.2 percent from the field. He is also first on the glass with 6.6 rpg as well, but those numbers don't begin to make up for the fact that he delivered just 27 assists in 30 games. Dorian Green and Travis Franklin were responsible for 11.7 and 10.6 ppg, respectively, but even though the former accounted for a team-best 71 assists, there's no getting past his mere 35.0 percent shooting from the field.
Because the Lobos are the talk of the conference, the one team that might be able to fly under the radar somewhat is second-seeded BYU which has one of the top scoring threats in the nation in Jimmer Fredette. The Cougars, a unit with one of the largest scoring margins in all of college basketball this season at plus- 18.7 ppg, showed great balance on both offense and defense, which is why seventh-seeded TCU is in for a rude awakening in the desert this week.
BYU, which crushed the Horned Frogs (13-18, 5-11) in the regular-season finale on Saturday with a 107-77 rout in Fort Worth, was among the top scoring teams in the nation this season with 83.1 ppg and much of the credit goes to Fredette and his 20.6 ppg. A three-point specialist with his 47.2 percent accuracy out on the perimeter, Fredette showed great range and the ability to slash through defenses to get to the rim and force contact, so much so that he shot 171-of-194 at the free-throw line. When the shot wasn't there for Fredette he was more than happy to give up the ball and let a teammate share the spotlight, which is why he was able to tally a team-best 141 assists. Jackson Emery (12.6 ppg) and Tyler Haws (11.4 ppg) were also big contributors from the starting lineup, but the one player that many forget about is Jonathan Tavernari because he seemingly lost his touch in the early part of the season and then ended up coming off the bench. Tavernari (10.5 ppg) doesn't get much of the glory anymore, but he is no less important to this program.
TCU, just 1-4 in this tournament since joining the Mountain West a few years back, may have shown its true colors back on November 24th when it needed three overtime periods just to get past Texas State at home. Of the five wins the Frogs logged in conference play, four came against Air Force and Wyoming, just a few more reasons why BYU should feel comfortable in the quarterfinals. Ronnie Moss, one of the nation's leaders in assists with 185 over the course of 31 games, is also the leading scorer for the group with his 14.6 ppg. However, as crucial as Moss is to the offense, his 39.7 percent shooting from the field doesn't scare too many opponents. Imports Zvonko Buljan and Edvinas Ruzgas kick in another 12.4 and 10.7 ppg, respectively, the former also standing in to clear 8.6 rpg. Because he plays so well in the paint, one would think that Buljan would have been instructed to refrain from letting loose from three-point range where he is just 26.9 percent accurate. Because of size restrictions placed on Air Force players its understood that the Falcons will struggle on the glass and when it comes to blocked shots, but TCU was only fractions ahead of the academy in the latter category with just two rejections per game.
Always a favorite to come out on top in this tourney, especially since the games are played on their home floor, the third-seeded UNLV Runnin' Rebels (23-7, 11-5) will be gunning for their fourth crown and the third in the last four years when they begin with a quarterfinals meeting against sixth-seeded Utah, the defending tournament champion. UNLV finished the regular season with the second-best scoring margin in the league with a plus-10.5 ppg, but the moment it looked like the Rebels were about to assert themselves in the conference they ended up dropping the ball. Following their crushing win over BYU the first week of February, the team turned around and promptly dropped three straight, so you have to wonder which version is going to show up for this tourney. Leading scorer Tre'Von Willis had his share of strong games for the group, averaged 20.3 ppg in MWC outings and was also second on the team overall with 103 assists, but all of that still didn't disguise the fact that he shot only 29.8 percent behind the three-point line. Chace Stanback (12.3 ppg) came on strong late in the campaign, but at the same time Oscar Bellfield (9.3 ppg) began to slow down.
A far cry from last year's team that ended up winning this tournament for the second time, the Utes (14-16, 7-9) were the worst in the conference when it came to turnover margin this season and that's just one of the reasons why Utah finished in the middle of the pack and was rather average all-around. Ranked seventh in the league in scoring, Carlon Brown (12.6 ppg) was the one who often appeared at the top of the scoring chart for the program, but what does it say about a team when the top scorer is someone who comes off the bench. Despite his freshman status, Marshall Henderson was also a factor on offense for the Utes with his 12.0 ppg, although his mere 37.5 percent shooting from the field left a lot to be desired. Putting up a tough defense was the one thing that kept the Utes in contention in so many outings, limiting teams to just 40.9 percent shooting from the field and 30.1 percent behind the three-point line, but the squad was desperate to still find offense of its own in order to succeed at a higher level.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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